Recent data is showing that even as snack food consumption stagnates, dairy-focused products such as Greek yogurt and cottage cheese are increasing sales volumes. NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga breaks down why in an interview with RFD-TV.
Author: Alan Bjerga
NMPF’s Bjerga on Milk’s Rising Consumption
NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga discusses how fluid milk consumption is rising, with whole milk leading the way, in an interview with RFD-TV. With the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act making its way through Congress, this could be the year consumer choices are reflected in federal policy.
Nevada Variant shows H5N1 testing at work
By Dr. Jamie Jonker, Chief Science Officer, National Milk Producers Federation
Highly pathogenic avian influenza. H5N1. Bird flu. Regardless of what you may call it, this virus has posed significant challenges to dairy farmers over the past year.
Since the first confirmed case of the H5N1 virus in dairy cattle in Texas last March 25, as of February 7, there have been 959 confirmed dairy herds across 16 states. On February 5, USDA announced a new variant of H5N1 in a herd in Nevada. That made one thing even clearer than before: As the virus evolves, so too must we.
The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) has worked closely with federal and state partners, along with industry partners, to share updates and guidance. National Dairy FARM Biosecurity Program resources have provided farms with biosecurity plan templates and educational materials on the best management practices to prevent disease introduction and spread. NMPF also secured grant funding from the National Animal Disease Preparedness and Response Program to expand the FARM Biosecurity Program and help even more producers and state officials to be prepared in an infectious disease outbreak.
NMPF also participates in weekly and daily stand-up calls with various working groups to help shape policies from the Food and Drug Administration and USDA regarding H5N1 in dairy cattle and dairy products. In December, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service announced its National Milk Testing Strategy, a surveillance effort aimed at better tracking herd status in states across the country. Testing under the National Milk Testing Strategy began in six states: California, Colorado, Michigan, Mississippi, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. More states joined in the month following the strategy’s launch, increasing the total to 40 states.
The National Milk Testing Strategy is what led the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) National Veterinary Services Laboratories toward confirming the new variant in Nevada. This genotype, D1.1, is different from genotype B3.13, which had been found in dairy cows until now. USDA APHIS and the Nevada Department of Agriculture are conducting additional on-farm investigation and testing and gathering more epidemiological information to better understand the effects of the new genotype and to limit further disease spread.
Much about the H5N1 virus remains unknown — how it spreads, how it evolves, how it affects cows long-term, and what it all means for humans. While a new variant is concerning, its detection shows that the systems in place for testing and identifying the virus in dairy cows are working as intended. Continued dedication to information sharing among the scientific community, state and federal officials, and everyone in the dairy supply chain is the only way forward.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Feb. 13, 2025.
Diving in on Dairy’s Legislative Agenda
By Paul Bleiberg, Executive Vice President, Government Relations, National Milk Producers FederationPresident Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance have now taken their oaths of office, and the 119th Congress has been seated. While the opening weeks of a new Congress and presidency focus on nominations and organization, these important housekeeping processes will soon give way to a busy legislative session.
We know dairy is ready for an action-packed 2025. National Milk Producers Federation’s (NMPF) major legislative goals begins with passage of a five-year farm bill, but what makes up that bill for dairy is just as important.
First, enabling schools to offer whole and reduced-fat milk is paramount. Milk provides 13 essential nutrients and is the top source of calcium, potassium, phosphorus, and vitamin D for children ages 2 to 18. However, just last month, the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee’s Scientific Report reaffirmed that 88% of all Americans are under consuming dairy. The bipartisan Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, recently reintroduced in Congress, provides the solution. This bill would allow, but not require, schools to serve all varieties of milk, including whole and reduced-fat milk. A growing body of evidence demonstrates that dairy foods at all fat levels have a neutral or positive effect on health outcomes. NMPF strongly supports swift passage of this measure to solve a critical child nutrition problem.
This problem is made clearer by data. Accurate, transparent data drives strong public policymaking. And that brings up another NMPF policy priority: remedying the persistent lack of accurate data when it comes to the costs of manufacturing raw milk into processed dairy products, which denies stakeholders an essential tool for assessing how milk pricing formulas ought to be structured.
A fix lies in the Fair Milk Pricing for Farmers Act, a bipartisan bill to require USDA to conduct mandatory dairy manufacturing cost surveys every two years. This will equip all voices in the dairy industry with better data to help drive future dairy pricing conversations.
Ongoing discussions on dairy pricing are vital for an industry that continues to innovate and advance. But milk pricing isn’t the only area where innovation is necessary. On the farm, U.S. dairy farmers benefit from safe and effective feed ingredients that can boost productivity in their herds and support environmental stewardship. However, the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) current outdated review process for these ingredients hinders their timely approval and puts U.S. dairy farmers at a disadvantage with their global competitors. NMPF supports the bipartisan Innovative FEED Act, first introduced in 2023, to create a safe but expeditious process for FDA to review these products to help farmers make important gains and stay competitive.
These are just a handful of the major legislative efforts NMPF seeks to advance. Each of these bipartisan bills made headway last year as the House and Senate began their respective farm bill processes. With the new Congress getting ready to produce results, dairy stands ready to get these important priorities signed into law.
r of choice.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Feb. 6, 2025.
NMPF’s Bjerga on Whole Milk, Lactose-Free Gains
Consumers are increasingly turning to whole milk, an important point to consider as Congress considers the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, NMPF Executive Vice President Alan Bjerga says in an interview with Big Radio in Janesville, WI. Along with whole milk, consumers are also drinking more lactose-free varieties, an important part of the industry’s future.
Dairy Poised for an Action-Packed 2025
By Paul Bleiberg, Executive Vice President, Government Affairs, National Milk Producers Federation
2024 was a tumultuous year on the political front, and 2025 promises to be just as eventful on the policy front.
The 2024 election resulted in President-elect Donald Trump winning a second term while Republicans simultaneously won control of the U.S. Senate and held their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. With a governing trifecta in hand next year, Republicans are poised to put their stamp on many significant issues, several of which have direct implications for dairy farmers.
Picking up where this year left off, a new farm bill remains on the congressional to-do list. Lawmakers enacted a one-year extension before adjourning for the year, paving the way for House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson of Pennsylvania and incoming Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman of Arkansas to lead their respective panels in drafting long-term farm policy legislation next year.
This year’s House and Senate farm bill frameworks included numerous dairy priorities, such as requiring USDA to conduct mandatory manufacturing cost surveys every two years, prioritizing common food name protection in trade discussions, and allowing schools to serve nutrient-dense whole milk. This year’s extension ensures that the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program continues without disruption as the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) advocates for a new five-year farm bill next year that meets dairy’s needs.
Republicans will also turn their attention to extending the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, one of President-elect Trump’s signature first-term accomplishments. NMPF will urge Congress to continue several pieces of the 2017 law, including the Section 199A domestic manufacturing tax deduction that allows agricultural cooperatives to pass the proceeds directly back to their farmer-owners. Congress is likely to complete this process using the tool known as budget reconciliation, which allows for the consideration of certain tax and spending legislation not subject to the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster requirement.
Finally, Congress will need to address an overall government funding deadline in early 2025. This year’s draft House and Senate agriculture funding bills included several NMPF-backed provisions, including House language to reverse the reduction in the maximum monthly milk allotment in USDA’s final foods package rule for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) and Senate language mirroring the Innovative FEED Act to allow the Food and Drug Administration to review animal feed additives in a more efficient manner. While a short-term funding extension will require the new Congress to complete the full-year bills, the bills drafted this year will likely serve as the starting point for final negotiations next year.
Beyond these priorities, Congress and the incoming Trump Administration are likely to address major issues ranging from environmental policy to labor to trade. At each step of the way, NMPF will advocate for dairy farmers and the cooperatives they own as they seek to provide the U.S. and the world with wholesome, nutritious, and sustainably-produced milk and dairy products.
lve harmful barriers to trade, and promote the U.S. dairy industry as the global supplier of choice.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Dec. 26, 2024.
NMPF’s Bjerga Discusses Rising Dairy Consumption
https://www.rfdtv.com/keep-it-flowing-u-s-per-capita-dairy-consumption-returns-to-1950s-levels
NMPF Executive Vice President for Communications & Industry Relations Alan Bjerga discusses new USDA data showing that per-capita dairy consumption among Americans is back to 1950s levels, in an interview with RFD-TV. Robust holiday sales could push consumption to even higher levels. “We can do this, America,” Bjerga said.
A Century of the Pasteurized Milk Ordinance
By Miquela Hanselman, Director of Regulatory Affairs, National Milk Producers Federation
For several years, raw milk advocacy has been trickling into the mainstream. From fringe blog sites to state legislatures, proponents tout alleged health benefits and downplay the risk. Even as highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in dairy cattle this year has shown the importance of pasteurizing milk for consumer safety and confidence, it has ironically drawn more attention to raw milk, which is seeing rising consumption. And with a raw milk advocate nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, the issue is receiving new attention.
National dairy groups are united: Raw milk consumption poses serious potential health risks, and milk for public consumption should be pasteurized. But milk safety is a never-ending discussion, and it’s against that backdrop that a bedrock of consumer safety and industry cooperation, the Grade A Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO), turns 100 years old this year.
The PMO, along with the National Conference on Interstate Milk Shipments (NCIMS), is a cornerstone of the United States producing the safest, most nutritious dairy products in the world. The PMO was a game changer in reducing the risk of foodborne illness associated with dairy products, providing a model milk regulation program with uniform safety requirements that states could voluntarily adopt.
Alabama was the first state to adopt the milk ordinance in 1924, and support for the ordinance spread across the country. Today, the PMO is updated every other year through the NCIMS, which will be held next April in Minneapolis, Minn.
The biennial NCIMS event is a model for collaboration, bringing together federal public health officials, the Food and Drug Administration, state officials, and the dairy industry. It focuses on a more effective and efficient system of regulating the interstate shipment of milk products. One key issue sure to come up will be the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cattle. Proposals for any issue or topic area to be considered at the conference are due in mid-January.
The National Milk Producers Federation and its members remain committed to keeping milk safe and accessible to Americans, even as food safety discussions evolve. Feel free to reach out to info@nmpf.org with any questions. And when the discussion moves to Minneapolis this spring for NCIMS, we will be prepared.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Nov. 28, 2024.
What dairy trade may look like under Trump
By Jaime Castaneda, Executive Vice President, National Milk Producers Federation
U.S. trade policy has changed significantly since the United States last passed a new free trade agreement (FTA), all the way back in 2011. During the past decade, securing new agricultural market access has become more difficult as it has been frustrated at times by both a lack of support in Washington, D.C., as well as an unwillingness from our trading partners to engage in earnest negotiations.
Although the United States has at times proposed new regional pacts and secured more targeted trade expansions in specific sectors, these proposals were typically seen as unbalanced and ultimately were found to be lacking in terms of political support here at home. Unfortunately, this trend looks poised to continue to the detriment of U.S. dairy producers and exporters. Despite these headwinds, U.S. dairy (and agriculture) exports have grown exponentially over the last 15 years, due in key part to established FTAs, World Trade Organization access, and more targeted agreements, but also because the growth in consumer demand for our dairy products outside the U.S. has risen in parallel with greatly improved economic conditions since the recession of 2009.
With Donald Trump returning to the White House in January, the National Milk Producers Federation is examining how his second administration may approach trade policy and what it means for U.S. dairy producers.
Comprehensive trade agreements and tariffs
President Trump’s “America First” economic policy was the cornerstone of his trade policy decisions in his first term, and it is a trend expected to accelerate in a second term. The first Trump administration focused on renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) — now the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — while also securing sectoral trade agreements with China and Japan and a pursuit of FTAs with the United Kingdom (UK) and Kenya. Negotiations with the UK faltered as a result of the enormous complexity of the UK’s exit from the European Union. Discussions with Kenya ended with the change from the Trump to Biden administrations. A resumption of trade negotiations with both could be explored under a second Trump administration in conjunction with Congress passing a renewal of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation.
New comprehensive trade agreements, or deals announced in specific sectors — along the lines of those pursued under Trump 1.0 — would open new markets for U.S. dairy producers. In contrast, tariff hikes imposed on trading partners invite the potential for retaliatory duties on U.S. dairy exports, exacerbating any competitive disadvantage that American dairy producers might face while reaching international customers.
USMCA review
President Trump’s renegotiation of NAFTA resulted in USMCA in 2020, with newly negotiated aspects of dairy products trade between the United States and Canada featured as a key element of the agreement. As USMCA prepares to enter its six-year mandatory review period in 2026, Canada’s persistent attempts to circumvent its dairy market access and protein export cap obligations will be front and center in the discussions, both on Capitol Hill and within the administration.
The role of Congress
While trade policy is largely driven by the executive branch, Congress will have a significant role in several areas over the next four years. In addition to any TPA discussion, there could also be a debate over China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. Congress will also want to have input regarding the USMCA’s 2026 review process, and a renewal of the trade title of the farm bill will influence dairy’s participation in U.S. food aid programs. Across these issues, the U.S. dairy community will have to make its voice heard to ensure that policymakers prioritize the issues that impact dairy producers and workers on the ground.
These are just a sample of the many trade issues that NMPF, the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), and their allies will prioritize in the Trump administration. With the backing of more than 26,000 dairy farms and millions of additional workers, NMPF is confident that it will be able to work with Congress and the administration to pursue new market access, resolve harmful barriers to trade, and promote the U.S. dairy industry as the global supplier of choice.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Nov. 7, 2024.
Beef dynamics may hinder dairy herd growth
By Allison Wilton, Coordinator, Economic Policy & Global Analysis, NMPF
High prices are supposedly the cure for high prices. That may not be the case with beef-on-dairy.
In recent years, the popularity of crossbred calves has grown exponentially as dairy farmers faced tight margins and beef cattle fetched record prices. Margins have improved on the dairy side, but the beef market has shown few signs of cooling down, suggesting a dairy herd boom is unlikely to materialize.
The beef herd is typically cyclical in nature, even as it has steadily shrunk since the 1990s. It’s now the smallest since 1951, leaving little supply cushion when weather or markets cause disruption. Droughts in 2022 and 2023 pushed many ranchers to liquidate herds; heifer and cow cull rates climbed in 2022 (up 4.8% and 10.9%, respectively), sparking the current cycle of high prices. Today, even with sky-high beef prices, calves on the ground at the beginning of 2024 were down 2.7% from the year earlier.
With drought in decline, ranchers may be looking to rebuild their herds. But a beef supply increase will take time. It will even result in higher prices in the short term as producers retain more heifers, which typically take at least two years to calve, and it will take another two years for those calves to be processed. Beef producers also operate under similar incentives as dairy farmers where today’s prices are pushing many to eschew a herd rebuild in favor of sending calves to market as soon as possible. These factors will all constrain the supply of beef animals for the next few years and support elevated prices for dairy-beef crosses.
Is change ahead?
Even as the beef herd is likely to remain constrained for the foreseeable future, two factors could still lower prices.
First, U.S. dairy farmers’ foray into beef crosses could shift supply dynamics in the beef market. U.S. farmers and ranchers purchased 9.4 million units of beef semen in 2023, according to the National Association of Animal Breeders, double as much as just five years ago. Notably, 85% of the beef semen purchased was by dairy farmers. Those calves have only recently made it to feedlots.
Second, several high-profile announcements of new feedlots specifically designed for dairy-beef crosses are likely to further entrench dairy’s investment in beef, permanently expanding the universe of potential beef production. Dairy could possibly cool off the beef market, but dairy’s own limitations to growing its herd naturally limit how many beef calves can come from dairy without seeing the dairy herd itself expand, which then would require switching away from beef — a highly unlikely outcome.
So, the beef herd is constrained for the foreseeable future and beef-on-dairy breeding has yet to provide enough supply to make today’s market more bearish. Demand for U.S. beef is unlikely to slow and remains relatively robust, even as consumers watch their spending. Meanwhile, global and domestic demand for protein, and specifically beef, has strengthened in recent years. U.S. beef exports grew 21% from 2015 to 2023. Tighter beef availability has limited exports so far this year (down 2% year-over-year), but growth remains the trend. Domestic demand has expanded as well, with domestic disappearance of beef 0.6% higher year-over-year in 2023, and per capita beef consumption has been rising as well.
With inflation cooling, consumers are likely to continue adding beef to their grocery carts. Until we see evidence that consumers are willing to switch from burgers to chicken or other proteins consistently, it appears beef prices are likely to remain strong and continue to limit the ability to grow the U.S. dairy herd in a meaningful way.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Oct. 17, 2024.
New sustainability tool means better insights
By Nicole Ayache, Chief Sustainability Officer, NMPF and FARM
The National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management (FARM) Program will launch Environmental Stewardship (ES) Version 3 in the next few weeks, helping producers understand on-farm greenhouse gas emissions and reduction opportunities like never before.
FARM ES Version 3 uses a new scientific model, the Ruminant Farm Systems model. RuFaS offers the option to run scenarios to inform on-farm decisions on topics ranging from ration formulation to manure management strategies, cropping practices, and more. This update is timely, coming at a moment when U.S. dairy farmers are being asked to build on their legacy of natural resource stewardship and ramp up their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction activities.
An example of the Version 3 program
The demand for GHG reductions is real and growing. Sixteen of the U.S.’s top 20 dairy processors have set a climate reduction target with the Science Based Targets initiative the leading global framework for companies to set voluntary GHG reduction goals, or have committed to setting one in the near future. Ten processors have targets that include Scope 3 emissions, which means they are looking for farm-level reductions. The voluntary carbon marketplace also shows this increasing demand: According to an analysis by McKinsey and Company, demand for voluntary carbon credits could rise by a factor of 15 by 2030.
FARM ES isn’t a carbon marketplace. But the upgraded platform gives farmers the insights and tools to assess the opportunities offered by carbon markets, supply chain inset projects, cost-share or incentive programs, and more. Farmers need access to robust, scientifically sound information so they can weigh options for reducing emission in ways that make sense for their business. Opportunities to reduce emissions can also mean reduced costs and increased productivity. The scenario analysis of the upgraded FARM ES evaluation tool includes an estimate of milk productivity changes and will grow to include financial analyses as these become available through RuFaS.
Just as with FARM ES Version 2, the upgraded platform continues to emphasize accuracy across different farm sizes, geographies, and styles. The data inputs are designed to be farmer friendly, and the core data required is similar to Version 2. Farmers also have the flexibility, but are not required, to input optional data such as reproductive programs, culling information, and farm cropping practices for more tailored results on emissions and carbon sequestration estimates.
A key focus for the rest of the year will be to collect farmer, FARM evaluator, and other stakeholder feedback, with plans to further refine the tool in 2025.
Farmers can reach out to their FARM Program evaluator to gain access to a FARM ES Version 3 platform once it launches. If the farm’s cooperative or processor does not yet participate in FARM ES, or if a farm would like to conduct a self-evaluation, reach out to dairyfarm@nmpf.org for guidance.
To learn more about the development of Version 3 and current FARM Environmental Stewardship efforts, please visit our website.
This column originally appeared in Hoard’s Dairyman Intel on Oct. 14, 2024.
NMPF’s Bjerga on Dairy’s Clout in the Elections
NMPF Executive Vice President for Communications & Industry Relations Alan Bjerga discusses the reasons why dairy farmers may be an especially influential portion of the farm vote in an interview on RFD-TV. Because dairy farms tended to cluster around major metro areas, they’re disproportionately represented in some of this year’s most closely contested states in the competition for the White House.
