NMPF’s Morris Assesses Dairy Impact of New Import Tariffs

NMPF’s executive vice president Shawna Morris assesses how the U.S. dairy sector could be impacted by the new tariffs imposed against imports by the Trump Administration, and how foreign countries may in turn raise their own tariffs against American exports.

DMC Margin Loses $0.73/cwt in March, on Lower Milk Price and Higher Feed Cost

The Dairy Margin Coverage margin fell $0.73/cwt to $13.12/cwt for March as milk prices fell and feed costs rose.

The U.S. average all-milk price lost $0.50/cwt in February, falling to $23.60/cwt, while higher feed costs covered the rest of the margin loss. The DMC Decision Tool on the USDA Farm Service Agency website at the end of March projected the monthly margin would average $12.51/cwt during 2025, with a low of $11.10/cwt in May. Such a performance would result in no DMC payouts for farmers this year.

Milk Price Gain Raises January DMC Margin

Following three months of falling from record highs, the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program margin rose in January as milk prices increased more than feed costs.

The January U.S. average all-milk price rose by $0.80/cwt from the month before to $24.10/cwt, while the DMC January feed cost formula increased by $0.33/cwt of milk on higher prices for all three of its feed components. That moved the DMC margin up by $0.47/cwt of milk for the month.

The DMC Decision Tool on the USDA Farm Service Agency website at the end of February projected the monthly margin would average $12.37/cwt during 2025, with a low of $11.41/cwt in late spring. 2025 DMC program enrollment is now open and is scheduled to close March 31.

DMC Margin Drops Again – to Third Highest Ever

The monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program lost $0.88/cwt from a month before, yet, at $14.29/cwt, still came in as the third highest since margin protection became the basic safety net program for dairy in 2015.

The November U.S. average all-milk price dropped by $1/cwt from October to $24.20/cwt, while the DMC feed cost formula declined by $0.12/cwt. A lower soybean meal price more than offset a higher corn price; the premium alfalfa hay price was little changed.

The end of December dairy and grain futures indicated that the DMC margin would average around $12.50/cwt for all of calendar year 2025, which would be $0.60/cwt higher than the 2024 annual average and well above the trigger under which payments begin.

Vitaliano’s Valedictory: Economist Shares Thoughts on Dairy’s Evolution

After nearly four decades as an economist at NMPF, Dr. Peter Vitaliano is retiring at the end of the year. He predicts a bright future for the industry.

“The U.S. dairy industry produces a huge variety of great products, for which consumption is continuing to grow,” Vitaliano said in a Dairy Defined Podcast. “It has very progressive farms and farmers, and great leadership amongst our organizations, and great organizations. That has been the case when I came, it’s the case now, and it’s going to be the case for many years in the future.”

Vitaliano, NMPF’s longtime chief economist, reflects on the evolution of policy challenges for the dairy industry in the podcast, explaining how shifts in the industry have created greater unity – and a more effective NMPF. For more of the Dairy Defined podcast, you can find and subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and Spotify under the podcast name “Dairy Defined.”

Media outlets may use clips from the podcast on the condition of attribution to the National Milk Producers Federation.


NMPF’s Bjerga Discusses Rising Dairy Consumption

https://www.rfdtv.com/keep-it-flowing-u-s-per-capita-dairy-consumption-returns-to-1950s-levels

NMPF Executive Vice President for Communications & Industry Relations Alan Bjerga discusses new USDA data showing that per-capita dairy consumption among Americans is back to 1950s levels, in an interview with RFD-TV. Robust holiday sales could push consumption to even higher levels. “We can do this, America,” Bjerga said.